Apple and iPod. How long would you wait?

If you had 75% of the US MP3 player market and led the world overall in marketshare, how long would you wait before introducing a new player? Apple and its iPod are in exactly this position. Probably the slickest looking and easiest-loading player around, but increasingly facing slick new competition with more capacity. Do you wait until market share takes a tumble, or anticipate that fall before it happens? Ah, strategy, strategy.

If Apple is smart - and they are - they will have numerous ideas up their sleeves. Products ready to launch but kept in reserve for the right moment. They may have a digital radio player, which would be a differentiator - and would show leadership. They may have more capacity or a larger screen, which would be matching the competition, not leading it. They may have something completely unique. Or they may have botched it completely. Unlikely but possible.

By letting the opposition get ahead on memory size they have indeed risked looking like followers. But their loyal clientele are rusted on - at least a hefty proportion, anyway. So the risk is minimised - and in the meantime they can get the most value - and profit - possible out of the current design. Why change for change's sake when you are sitting on cash flow like this? (CNET article here, btw, that prompted this thinking.)